The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) has just unveiled groundbreaking decarbonization pathways for the global chemicals industry, and the implications for Africa, particularly its fertilizer and energy sectors, are massive. This new guidance, released on December 2, 2025, isn't just a set of recommendations; it's a detailed roadmap outlining how producers of essential chemicals like ammonia, methanol, and fertilizers must slash their emissions to align with international climate goals. But why is this so crucial for Africa? Because the continent's future is intricately woven with its agricultural practices, industrial development, and energy systems, all of which are deeply intertwined with chemical production and fertilizer usage.
The SBTi's framework is a game-changer because it clearly defines who needs to act, what changes are necessary, when reductions must occur, and where the most significant pressure points lie within the sector. It also provides guidance on how companies should restructure their operations to meet both short-term and long-term climate targets.
The chemical industry underpins almost all modern manufacturing, making its environmental footprint enormous. It's the world's largest industrial energy consumer and the third-largest industrial emitter. The SBTi's new pathways break down this complexity into manageable pieces, providing specific emissions trajectories for each production method, from ammonia synthesis to methanol reforming and nitric acid production, all grounded in climate science. This gives companies a clear understanding of what it means to be 'Paris-aligned' in terms of their assets, processes, and downstream impacts.
For Africa, this is particularly critical because fertilizer production and use are at the heart of the continent's food security and emissions challenges. Africa imports the majority of its nitrogen fertilizers, with regional consumption reaching several million tons annually. The volatility of global markets regularly impacts food prices, making this a pressing issue.
Consider the national figures: Ethiopia's fertilizer consumption has surged to around 1.7 million tons annually, largely driven by urea. Nigeria's Dangote complex, boasting a capacity of three million tons per year, now dominates West Africa's ammonia and urea supply, reshaping import patterns across the region.
Each facility represents both an economic opportunity and a significant carbon obligation. An ammonia plant producing one million tons per year emits millions of tons of CO₂ over a decade if it relies on unabated natural-gas feedstock. However, if the same plant is powered by low-carbon hydrogen via electrolysis, emissions can be dramatically reduced. But this requires hundreds of megawatts of dedicated renewable power and substantial capital investment. The SBTi pathways quantify these trade-offs and set expectations that financiers will increasingly use when assessing project viability.
African nations pursuing green hydrogen and green ammonia face a delicate balancing act between ambition, financial needs, and market uncertainty. Over the past year, several large export-oriented hydrogen projects globally have struggled to secure bankable offtake agreements. One high-profile developer even withdrew from a major African project after expected deals fell through, demonstrating the commercial landscape's fluidity. This comes as countries like Namibia, Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa are promoting large-scale green industrial hubs, aiming to anchor future fertilizer supply and export revenue.
The SBTi's structure, which breaks decarbonization into realistic, measurable stages, offers governments and developers a clearer way to design projects that avoid overextension and match technology choices to credible demand.
But here's where it gets controversial... Smaller, decentralized models of green ammonia production are gaining traction because they can serve local farming areas without the burdens of massive infrastructure. Modular plants designed to produce a few thousand tons per year can be paired with local solar, wind, or geothermal resources, reducing transport costs and lessening the currency exposure faced by fertilizer importers.
For regions like the East African highlands and parts of the Sahel, where transport adds a significant premium to fertilizer prices, distributed production could ease immediate pressures while still aligning with the SBTi's emissions expectations. These projects require tens of millions of dollars rather than billions, making them easier to finance through blended structures that combine development finance with private capital.
And this is the part most people miss... The report also extends beyond factories to the fields, where nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions rise after fertilizer application. SBTi acknowledges that production-side reforms alone cannot contain agricultural N₂O, a gas far more potent than CO₂.
For African agriculture, where application rates, soil conditions, and farming practices vary widely, decarbonization demands improved extension services, more efficient nutrient use, locally tailored blends, and stronger distribution networks. These are as much development challenges as they are climate tasks, and the SBTi framework provides a basis for donors and governments to align agricultural support with emissions goals.
As African governments shape their industrial policies, the SBTi pathways offer regulators a credible reference point for approving new plants, structuring incentives, and negotiating financing. Whether a state chooses to retrofit gas-based facilities with carbon capture, pursue renewable-powered electrolysis, or blend both approaches, the framework makes the climate implications quantifiable.
Investors and export-credit agencies will heavily rely on these metrics when deciding where to allocate capital. In practice, projects that cannot demonstrate alignment with the SBTi trajectories will face higher financing costs or outright exclusion from climate-aligned capital pools.
The new guidance effectively shifts Africa's fertilizer and chemical build-out from a race for capacity to a test of credibility. The continent's industrial expansion can proceed on cleaner terms if governments, companies, and financiers embrace and apply these pathways now, rather than retrofitting later at a higher cost.
The SBTi hasn't dictated Africa's industrial choices, but it has made the stakes crystal clear: every ammonia unit built, every hydrogen plan financed, and every ton of fertilizer applied will carry an emissions trajectory that can now be measured, judged, and compared.
What are your thoughts? Do you think the SBTi's guidelines are realistic for Africa? Are there any potential downsides to these new pathways that you foresee? Share your opinions in the comments below!
